The demand for children in Arab countries: evidence from panel and count data models.

Relying on time-series and cross-sectional data, this paper investigates the effect of economic forces and cultural norms on fertility variations across and within Arab countries. This is accomplished by reviewing cross-country fertility trends at the aggregate level using a random-effect model applied to panel data covering 11 Arab countries. Estimates of cross-country fertility determinants were derived from the data on these countries. Despite disparities existing across countries, fertility levels were high overall in the region. Government policy has a role in the heterogeneity of Arab countries. At an aggregate level, findings suggest that Arab countries with a higher per capita income tend to maintain a higher fertility rate. Micro unit data indicated that preference for male offspring and religious beliefs positively influenced the number of births. One finding that is consistent at both macro and micro levels of analysis was that high levels of female educational attainment and--among working women--high wages had a powerful negative impact on fertility. However, women's education produced externalities (e.g., improvements in children¿s health and longevity as well as scholastic achievement) and also influenced family size. This implies that incentive-based government policies that attempt to reduce family size will require large penalties in order to be effective and may even be regressive from a social welfare perspective.